CompactPCI CPU market begins to evolve

A recent study of of SBCs and embedded CPU blades in embedded and real-time applications shows that native switch fabric access is becoming a necessity in CompactPCI SBC products.

In a recent study of the global market for slot single board computers and embedded CPU blades in embedded and real-time applications, Venture Development Corp (VDC) determined that native switch fabric access is becoming a necessity, rather than an option, in CompactPCI SBC products.

VDC divided the CompactPCI SBC market into three segments: blades - which do not carry the PCIbus onto the backplane and communicate exclusively through a switch fabric or high-speed serial interconnect; fabric-enabled SBCs - which carry both the PCIbus and switch fabric/high-speed serial interconnect access onto the backplane; and "traditional" SBCs - which provide no native access to a switch fabric or high-speed interconnect.

The survey predicts that between 2004 and 2008: the market for blades will increase from $52.4 million to $81.5 million; fabric-enabled SBCs will increase from $193.6 million to $227.0 million; whereas the market for traditional SBCs will decline from $179.2 million to $129.4 million.

The overall market for CompactPCI SBCs is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.7% over this period.

Blades show the highest projected CAGR 11.7%, whereas "traditional" SBCs show a decline (a negative CAGR of -7.8%).

J Eric Gulliksen, Director of VDC's Embedded Hardware Practice, states that fabric-enabled SBCs actually represent a half step in the evolution of CompactPCI CPU boards.

"Vendors are offering these boards as a hedge against a full commitment to the blade architecture".

"Fabric-enabled SBCs, although growing in share and in actual shipments, show a substantially lower rate of increase".

"As switch fabrics and high-speed serial interconnects increase in speed and bandwidth, customers will realise that the PCIbus actually represents 'excess baggage' which has outlived its utility".

Gulliksen also pointed out that CompactPCI SBCs, as a whole, show only modest growth over the 2004-2008-time period.

"Actually, we expect shipments of CompactPCI CPU boards, including blades, to peak in 2005 and then to start a slow decline as ATCA begins to have an impact".

"Finalisation of the CompactTCA specification, which will define CompactPCI-based blade configurations, may temper or even reverse this decline".

Other relevant findings in the VDC report include: 86% of CompactPCI shipments include one or more PMC sites.

Some of these may be used to provide switch fabric access, if this is not native to the board itself.

Ethernet fabric (or PICMG 2.16) totally dominates in native fabric-enabled SBCs and blades, commanding over 99% of the market.

PCI Express advanced switching is expected to have some impact over the next several years but, as Ethernet speeds reach and pass 10GigE, this impact may be minimal.

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